amfAR, The Foundation for AIDS Research

September 2012 Update: The Effect of Budget Sequestration on Global Health: Projecting the Human Impact in fiscal year 2013

Update September 25, 2012 - amfAR has recalculated estimates from our July 2012 issue brief on the human impact of budget sequestration on global health.   The new estimates are based on the OMB Sequestration Transparency report released on September 14, 2012, and passage of a Continuing Resolution in the US Congress.   (The original brief is available at: )

These new numbers reflect the OMB estimate of an 8.2% across-the-board funding cut to most non-defense discretionary programs using FY 2012 appropriations levels.  As we found in our earlier brief, applying sequestration cuts to US government global health programming would have minimal impact on deficit reduction, but would be devastating to the lives of many thousands of people globally.

As a result of sequestration of US Government bilateral support:

  • HIV/AIDS treatment for 276,500 people will not be available, potentially leading to 63,000 more AIDS-related deaths and 124,000 more children becoming orphans.
  • 112,500 fewer HIV-positive pregnant women will receive PMTCT services, leading to more than 21,000 infants being infected with HIV.
  • Funding for food, education, and livelihood assistance will not be available for nearly 359,000 children.
  • 2.2 million fewer insecticide-treated nets will be procured, leading to nearly 6,000 deaths due to malaria; 3.6 million fewer people will receive treatment.
  • 60,000 fewer people with TB will receive treatment, leading to 7,000 more deaths due to TB; 300 fewer people with MDR-TB will receive treatment.
  • 1.3 million fewer pentavalent vaccines for children will be available through GAVI, leading to 14,000 more deaths from diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, Haemophilus influenza type B, and hepatitis B.

As a result of sequestration of contributions to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB, and Malaria:

  • 2.5 million fewer insecticide-treated nets will be available, leading to 6,500 deaths from malaria.
  • 88,000 fewer TB patients will receive treatment, leading to 11,000 more TB deaths.
  • An additional 100,000 people will not be treated for HIV/AIDS.